this page will discuss Good's various works and perspectives ... if you were a Doogian, you would also adopt a Bayes/non-Bayes compromise, peek at the data before forming an hypothesis.
You would worry about rational decisions and the 27 principles of rationality, 46656 varieties of Bayesians, measuring non-measurable sets, dynamic probability, and when a white shoe is a red herring (or maybe pink).
You would also wonder about the size of our galaxy.
An interesting note is that IJ Good, some times known as Jack, was Alan Turing's Chief Statistician .
... more will be said about IJ Good or, as he might refer to himself occasionally, Kcaj Doog .... but we'll save that for later.
right now ... the item of interest is what I call the Doogian Maching in honor of Kcaj Doog.
the topic will be developed under the rubric "The Doogian Machine ... aka the First Ultraintelligent Machine"
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From I.J. Good, "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine", Advances in Computers, vol. 6, 1965. (Then at Trinity College, Oxford. England and Atlas Computer Laboratory, Chilton, Berkshire, England) "Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man would be left far behind (see for example refs. [22], [34], [44]). Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control." |
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